Anyone who follows this blog knows I am notoriously bad at predicting the box office, but nevertheless it is still fun to take a crack at it- especially at the beginning of the big summer season. Last year I got 6/10 right with misses from TMNT: Out of the Shadows, Independence Day Resurgence, Pete’s Dragon and Sausage Party.
Last year I just went with my gut feelings where this year I have actually done some research. It will be interesting to see which method fairs better.
My predictions are based on domestic grosses not international because many movies are released out of the summer internationally.
So here is my predictions for 2017 Summer Box Office:
- Guardians of the Galaxy vol 2- There is so much enthusiasm for this movie. People literally cheer in the theater when a trailer comes on. The first film did surprisingly well and this will do even better. I think it will open at 175 million similar to Beauty and the Beast and it will have legs. Baby Groot!
- Despicable Me 3- Summer 2014 only had 1 animated film in the top 10 and 2017 will be the same. Illumination has not had a miss at the box office yet and nearly every child I know is looking forward to DM3.
- Spider-Man Homecoming- The Amazing Spider-man 2 made $202 million despite it not being very good. This film is coming off of Civil War that people loved. It has Iron Man in it, Michael Keaton as the villain and a new younger Peter Parker. It will do very well
- Transformers 5- The last Transformers movie made $245 million domestic despite it being awful and having terrible predecessors. Last Knight has Transformers, King Arthur, Nazis and time travel so there’s no reason to think this will be any less successful.
- Wonder Woman- I know some are cynical about DC but despite the last 3 entries not being very good they still made a lot of money including Suicide Squad that was barely a movie. Wonder Woman has had good trailers and will hopefully appeal to both boys and girls
- War of the Planet of the Apes- The last Apes movie made $208 million and this looks fantastic. I can’t wait for it so I think it will do very well!
- The Mummy- This is a bit of a risk because Tom Cruise had a misfire with Jack Reacher 2 and Dracula Untold didn’t do well. But I’m thinking this will draw in the Mission Impossible crowd with its stunts and scope.
- Dunkirk- Interstellar made $188 million and this looks to be more of a traditional narrative from Christopher Nolan. He is the big draw here because it does seem like an odd release date for what should be an Oscar season movie?
- Baywatch- Last year the Rock did well for me with Central Intelligence so I’m betting on him again. He has so much charisma and promotes his films so much. A big factor on this film is if it is funny or not. We’ll see.
- Rough Night- There are 3 raunchy female-led comedies this summer, so I have to believe one of them will crack the top 10. My pick is Rough Night with Scarlet Johansson and Kate McKinnon. Bad Moms made $179 million and this will do similarly well.
Dark Horse Contenders- All Eyez on Me, Captain Underpants, Cars 3, Emoji Movie, Baby Driver, Atomic Blonde, Pirates 5, Snatched, Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, Alien Covenant
Obviously it won’t make the top 10 but I am hopeful the documentary STEP does well for a documentary. They just released the trailer and it has a lot of hits for an indie doc. I just love it so much!